As of 23 June 2026, WMO and NASA warned that El Niño 2026 could weaken the Indian monsoon; IMD has forecast a below‑average monsoon and reported a 40–46% rainfall deficit by June.
Current status
- El Niño event: International agencies declared an El Niño in mid‑June 2026 based on Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies.
- Concurrent Pacific cyclones: A super typhoon was affecting parts of the northern Philippines on 23 June 2026, illustrating active western Pacific conditions.
Projected monsoon impacts
- Rainfall outlook: WMO projected rainfall 50–70% below normal in many parts of India during July–August 2026.
- Temperature outlook: WMO indicated a 60–70% chance of above‑average temperatures in northern, north‑western, western and southern India for July–August.
- Observed heat: Several states (Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh) recorded temperatures exceeding 45°C in June 2026.
- IMD assessment: IMD assessed the 2026 monsoon as below‑average with a reported 40–46% deficit by June.
IASPOINT Booster Facts
- ENSO definition: El Niño is the warm phase of ENSO; NOAA criterion uses Niño‑3.4 SST anomaly ≥ +0.5°C as the threshold (3‑month running mean).
- Strong El Niño: Often characterised by Niño‑3.4 anomalies ≥ +1.5°C.
- Monsoon season: Indian monsoon spans June–September with peak rainfall in July–August; IMD reports All‑India Rainfall against long‑period averages.
- Typical impacts: El Niño years are historically associated with reduced central and north Indian rainfall, increased heatwave frequency and elevated drought risk.