The World Meteorological Organization has indicated a high possibility of El Niño developing in the later half of 2026. El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, a major ocean-atmosphere pattern over the equatorial Pacific that influences weather across the world. The current weak La Niña phase is fading, and conditions are expected to shift to ENSO-neutral before potentially turning warm later in the year.
What El Niño Means
El Niño refers to unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It disrupts normal atmospheric circulation and can alter rainfall, temperature, and storm patterns in many regions. Its opposite phase is La Niña, which is associated with cooler-than-normal Pacific waters.
Current ENSO Outlook
The latest forecasts suggest that the present La Niña event is weak and short-lived. Climate models indicate a transition to neutral ENSO conditions in the near term. Several weather models, including those used in India, point to the possibility of El Niño emerging after July.
Impact on Indian Monsoon
If El Niño develops, it may coincide with the peak southwest monsoon season in India. The southwest monsoon runs from June to September and provides more than 70% of India’s annual rainfall. July and August usually contribute over half of the seasonal rainfall. Historically, many El Niño years have been linked to below-normal monsoon rainfall in India.
Why It Matters
El Niño is only one of several factors that shape the monsoon, but it is closely watched because of its influence on agriculture, water resources, and the wider economy. Early signals help governments and planners prepare for possible rainfall variability and its effects on food production and hydrology.
Last Modified: April 28, 2026