In March 2025, the United States Department of Agriculture released a report projecting a sharp rise in India’s demand for maize and soyabean meal — two critical animal feed ingredients — over the next 25 years. The timing, soon after Donald Trump began his second presidential term, and amid ongoing India–US trade negotiations, gives the projections strategic significance. The report underscores a structural challenge: can India’s domestic agriculture keep pace with rising protein demand, or will it increasingly depend on imports?
Why Maize and Soyabean Matter in India’s Food Transition
India’s dietary profile is undergoing gradual diversification. Rising incomes, urbanisation, and a projected population of over 1.5 billion by 2050 are shifting consumption away from cereals towards protein-rich foods such as milk, eggs, poultry, meat, and fish.
This shift has a multiplier effect on feed demand. Maize is primarily an energy source in feed, while soyabean meal supplies protein. For instance:
- Broiler feed contains 55–65% maize.
- Layer feed uses 50–60% maize.
- Cattle feed includes 15–20% maize.
- Soyabean meal and other oilseed cakes provide essential protein.
As animal protein consumption increases, feed demand rises disproportionately. This explains why maize consumption is projected to rise from about 34.7 million tonnes (mt) in 2022-23 to between 93 mt and 200 mt by 2050, depending on growth scenarios.
Yield Gaps and Production Constraints
The core issue is not demand alone, but India’s relatively low crop productivity. Per-hectare maize yields in India average about 3.75 tonnes, compared to over 11 tonnes in the US. Soyabean yields are under 1 tonne per hectare in India, against more than 3 tonnes in the US.
India’s annual maize output of roughly 43 mt and soyabean production of about 12.5 mt are modest compared to US production levels of 425 mt (maize) and 120 mt (soyabean). Even if acreage expands, yield gaps remain a structural bottleneck.
The United States Department of Agriculture projects that under both moderate and rapid GDP growth scenarios, India may need substantial imports by 2040 and 2050, particularly if productivity improvements stagnate.
The Political Economy of GM Imports
A major trade barrier lies in genetically modified (GM) crops. The US, Brazil, and Argentina predominantly cultivate GM maize and soyabean. India, however, maintains restrictions on GM food crop imports.
In 2021, the Directorate General of Foreign Trade temporarily allowed limited imports of soyabean meal derived from GM crops due to domestic shortages. However, this was a one-time measure.
Under recent bilateral understandings, India has retained its ban on GM maize and soyabean imports. This reflects domestic sensitivities around biosafety, farmer interests, and food sovereignty. The debate over GM crops in India remains politically and scientifically contested, involving issues of:
- Biodiversity and environmental impact.
- Seed sovereignty and corporate control.
- Consumer safety perceptions.
- Farm productivity gains versus ecological risks.
Sorghum and DDGS: The Narrow Opening
Although India has not opened its market to American GM maize and soyabean, it has allowed imports of two alternative feed ingredients.
First, red sorghum — a non-GM grain — has gained entry. The US is the world’s largest producer and exporter of sorghum. It is being positioned as a substitute energy source in poultry feed.
Second, Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) have been opened to imports. DDGS is a by-product of ethanol production. When maize starch is fermented into ethanol, the residual material becomes a protein-rich feed ingredient.
Domestic grain-based ethanol plants already produce over 3 mt of DDGS annually, with projections of further growth. Imports from the US could supplement this supply, even though the DDGS originates from GM corn.
Thus, while the core GM ban remains intact, India has created a calibrated entry point for US feed exports.
Implications for India’s Feed Industry
India’s compound feed industry produces nearly 60 mt annually, valued at over ₹1.75 lakh crore. Poultry feed dominates, followed by cattle and aquaculture feed.
If demand rises as projected:
- Feed costs may escalate without productivity gains.
- Pressure may mount to reconsider GM crop policy.
- Import dependence could expose India to global price volatility.
- Trade negotiations with the US may increasingly centre on agricultural access.
At the same time, boosting domestic productivity through improved seeds, irrigation, mechanisation, and research investment could reduce import dependence.
Strategic and Policy Questions Ahead
The issue intersects food security, trade diplomacy, biotechnology regulation, and rural livelihoods. Key policy questions include:
- Should India accelerate GM crop trials to close yield gaps?
- Can non-GM high-yield varieties and agronomic reforms bridge productivity deficits?
- How should India balance protein security with environmental sustainability?
- What safeguards are needed if feed imports expand significantly?
The emerging feed grain challenge is not merely about agriculture; it is about the structural transformation of India’s food system.
What to Note for Prelims?
- Role of maize and soyabean meal in animal feed.
- Concept and composition of DDGS.
- Yield comparisons between India and major exporters.
- Regulatory authority of the Directorate General of Foreign Trade.
- Basics of GM crop policy in India.
What to Note for Mains?
- Analyse how dietary transition affects agricultural demand patterns.
- Discuss the trade-offs in India’s GM crop policy.
- Evaluate implications of feed import dependence for food security and trade balance.
- Examine strategies to enhance domestic feed crop productivity sustainably.