The International Labour Organization’s Employment and Social Trends 2026 report has warned that the global labour market remains fragile despite historically low unemployment. It projects the worldwide unemployment rate to stay at 4.9% in 2026, equal to about 186 million people. The report also marks slow progress in reducing poverty, high informality, and continuing gender and youth employment gaps.
Global Employment Outlook
The report says global unemployment was estimated at 4.9% in 2025 and is likely to remain at the same level until 2027. The broader jobs gap is projected at 408 million in 2026. Regional trends differ. Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to improve slightly, while unemployment in Northern America may worsen.
Poverty and Informal Work
The report states that around 284 million workers still live in extreme poverty, earning less than three dollars a day. Between 2015 and 2025, the share of workers in extreme poverty fell by only 3.1 percentage points to 7.9%, far slower than the previous decade. More than two billion workers remain in informal employment, and by 2026 this figure is projected to rise to 2.1 billion. Informal work is linked to weak social protection, poor job security, and limited workplace rights.
Gender and Youth Employment Gaps
Women accounted for only two fifths of global employment in 2025. They were 24.2 percentage points less likely than men to participate in the labour force. Young women were also 14.4 percentage points more likely than young men to be out of employment, education, or training. For youth overall, the unemployment rate rose to 12.4% in 2025, while the NEET share increased to 20.0%. The report says 257 million young people were in NEET status.
Trade Uncertainty and Labour Risks
The report warns that trade uncertainty and digital transformation are reshaping production, supply chains, and wages. It says moderate trade policy uncertainty may reduce returns to labour and lower real wages for skilled and unskilled workers. Estimated income losses are highest in South-Eastern Asia, Europe, and Southern Asia.
Last Modified: April 27, 2026