The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released its Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2026–2035 on 28 May 2026. The report, produced by the UK Met Office (the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction), warns that global temperatures will persist at or near record-breaking levels over the next five years, driven by human-induced greenhouse gas emissions and natural climate variability.
Key Climate Projections (2026–2030)
- Temperature Range: Annual global mean near-surface temperatures are projected to be 1.3°C to 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline.
- Record-Breaking Odds: There is an 86% chance that at least one year in the 2026–2030 period will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record.
- 1.5°C Threshold: There is a 91% probability that global temperatures will temporarily exceed the 1.5°C threshold in at least one year, and a 75% chance that the five-year average will exceed this mark.
- Regional Impacts: Arctic winter temperatures are expected to be 2.8°C higher than the 1991–2020 average. Precipitation is predicted to increase in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and Siberia, with dry anomalies over the Amazon.
- El Niño Influence: Predicted El Niño conditions for late 2026 increase the likelihood of 2027 being a record-breaking year.
IASPOINT Booster Facts
- Baseline: Uses the 1850–1900 period as the standard pre-industrial reference.
- Paris Agreement: The 1.5°C goal refers to long-term warming (typically averaged over 20 years); temporary annual breaches do not signal the failure of the agreement.
- Data Synthesis: Produced by the UK Met Office using contributions from 13 international climate institutes.
- Tipping Points: Repeated 1.5°C breaches increase risks of irreversible events like coral reef collapse and permafrost thawing.